Chris Writes.

I have seen this link passed around quite a lot recently, and have given the comparison some thought.  I am pretty sure that cycling is not the new golf, for several reasons.

Before we go to far, let me clarify what I think the assertion is: that as participants in the only sport with shoes uglier than bike shoes, the well-but-grotesquely-heeled golfers are giving up golf for cycling.  Perhaps even more specifically, they’re giving up golf-situated meetings for ride-situated meetings, and making cycling the ‘new hip way’ to close a deal, kiss your bosses ass, or lay the smackdown into that Higgins miscreant down in accounts receivable.  One of my more tech savvy connections noted that similar comments were once made about World of Warcraft being the new golf. I suspect the World of Warcraft people, had they heard about this, would have protested as well, albeit for different reasons.

This cycling=golf thinking can only lead to doom. The risk I see is that this nouveau high end of the sport, and the media in lockstep, may position elite level riding too closely with the impression of *requiring* the $8000 bike and the club membership, rather than requiring nothing more than a good attuide, perhaps some interval training, and maybe a few 6hr rides.  I imagine wrinkled veterans and young skinsuited pros with fresh manicures saying to those who can afford it: “Welcome to the good life. Here is your custom carbon bike, you have now made it into the club. Have a cigar.”  As if that somehow wins you a podium spot in your next crit.  It does not.  And you know this.

As an old riding buddy mentioned recently, this comparison leaves cycling with the risk of being seen by non-cyclists as an ‘elite sport’, and participation tantamount to a statement of social status.  We must fight this with every bit of Cat-5 scrappaciousness that we can collectively muster. Growing the sport to include the country club members is fine, but not if they commandeer the sport’s soul from the same people who made cycling awesome. In aggregate, it gains cycling very little by having the Rockefellers riding bikes in the Hamptons, and stands to isolate a large number who, even recently, may have been re-introduced to cycling as a means towards fun, fitness, and transportation. Cycling is not an elitist sport, as it can be enjoyed by nearly anyone, nearly anywhere. Ask any commuter from Portland, they’ll tell you.

Another colleague quipped that “cycling is the new guitar hero”, which is a clever alternative, but the evidence suggests otherwise.  Meanwhile, cycling sometimes wishes for new growth patterns like this, while guitar hero probably hopes their franchise might last into the next decade before people get bored and fret about something else.

From an analytic framework, let’s look at the web as a proxy for behavior. My interpretation of this: golf and cycling follow distinct patterns over the past 5 years (they’re both more popular in the summer, no surprise), and they seem to have minimal aggregate shifts in popularity.  There does not seem to be evidence here that one is replacing the other.  If anything by this measure, it seems at first glance that cycling is in decline (though I think this omits the important distinction of cycling having developed road, MTB, BMX, and other vertical outlets within it, whereas golf doesn’t offer the array of experiences; the term ‘cycling’ declines as specialties within it increase).

One possible reason that someone could say cycling is the new golf would be if golf were dying completely and being replaced by cycling entirely.  Consider that city infrastructure projects are opening up more and more places to ride, while according to the National Golf Federation, “NGF has identified 113 golf courses, in 18-hole equivalents, that opened for business in the U.S. in 2007. During the same period, there were 121.5 golf course closures, resulting in a net negative of 8.5 courses. This year’s story is much the same as 2006 when the number of closures outnumbered openings by 26.5.”  But of course, one sport in infrastructure decline while the other is growing does not mean that one replaces the other.  If cycling were actually replacing golf, I’d expect we’d need to see an increase in sales to a much older demographic, and I’m not seeing that.

No matter how you slice the data though, I think the key difference is the requirement of competition: golf or guitar hero, both carry an inherent scorecard and leaderboard. In cycling, every ride is different, motivations vary, and the experience can be one of gentle camaraderie as easily as it can be one of wanting to tear the legs off a competitor in every imaginable sense. Cycling will never be the new golf, because it’s always possible to ride without counting your strokes.  Even when golfers are at the driving range, they’re still watching every ball to gauge distance.  When’s the last time you saw a golfer swinging a club for the sheer joy of swinging it?  As much as golf might wish their sport were this intrinsically enjoyable, it does not seem to be.

This is not to bash golf, it’s still an obviously valid sport that gets lots of people out for long walks, which is clearly beneficial.  But say it with me people: “Cycling is not the new golf, because golf wishes it were the new cycling.” Golf, however, might be too self absorbed to realize this, so don’t be surprised when they deny it.  But be nice and compliment their shoes; they paid a lot of money to make their feet look like that.